Prime held at 6.75% through the June FOMC hold, but the dot plot flipped: 9 of 18 members now project a hike before year-end. Rate ranges across SMB products are unchanged — but the fixed vs. variable calculation has materially shifted entering Q3.
Q3 2026 opens with Prime unchanged at 6.75% — the June FOMC held 12-0 — but the dot plot has shifted: 9 of 18 members now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Rate ranges across SMB products held from Q2 (non-bank term loans 18–35% APR, LOCs 13–28%, MCA factor 1.18–1.55), but fixed-rate windows are increasingly valuable with a hike in the probability distribution for H2 2026.
Rate ranges across SMB financing haven't moved since the Q2 snapshot — the June FOMC held 3.50%–3.75% by a 12-0 unanimous vote on June 17, 2026 — but the committee's forward signal changed materially. Nine of 18 members now project at least one rate hike before year-end, up from a cut-bias consensus in March. That shift changes the calculus on fixed vs. variable product selection even before a single rate actually moves.
Here's the Q3 working snapshot across our funding-partner network. Same caveat as always: these are illustrative ranges across the partner mix. Your specific file determines where you actually land.
Factor rates: 1.18 – 1.55. Effective APR: roughly 25 – 110% depending on term, with most 6–12 month deals landing in the 40 – 65% APR-equivalent range. See how factor rates convert to APR for the math.
The bands by file strength:
Working capital pricing is driven by risk appetite and capital availability, not the Prime Rate. Factor rate floors held from Q2 and are unaffected by the dot plot shift. See the decision framework for line of credit vs. MCA for when to route to each.
The non-bank floor compression from Q2 (200–300 bps) has held into Q3. Variable-rate lines now carry more duration risk. If you hold a variable-rate revolving line and haven't repriced in 12+ months, the Q3 window — before a potential hike materializes — is worth reviewing.
The dot plot signal makes fixed-rate term financing more attractive relative to variable alternatives. If you've been running on a variable-rate facility and your use of funds permits a longer repayment structure, fixed-rate conversion is worth modeling before a hike converts from a probability to a data point. See term loans vs. MCAs for the consolidation framework.
7 – 25% APR, depending on credit, equipment type, and resale market.
Equipment financing remains the most credit-accessible product on the menu because the equipment itself secures the loan. Fixed-rate equipment terms are the obvious default over variable-rate structures given Q3's rate environment. For the equipment vs. working-capital decision on the same use case, see equipment financing vs. MCA.
Variable, capped at Prime + 2.25% to + 4.75% depending on loan size and term. With Prime at 6.75% (Federal Reserve H.15, June 2026), current SBA 7(a) pricing ranges roughly 9.00 – 11.50% APR across the cap structure — with the lowest spreads on loans over $50K and the highest on loans under $25K.
SBA 7(a) fixed-rate options exist and are available through certain PLP lenders. They lock the Prime-linked rate component for the life of the loan. With 9 of 18 FOMC members now projecting a hike and the median year-end projection at 3.8% (above today's 3.75% ceiling), fixed-rate SBA structures are worth asking about explicitly if you're in a long-term acquisition or expansion project.
SBA timelines remain compressed going into Q3 2026. See the SBA bottleneck for the current processing context.
The SBA 504 debenture rate is set monthly through debenture sales and tracks the 10-year Treasury rather than Prime. The 10-year Treasury sat at 4.41% as of late June 2026 (FRED:DGS10) — down roughly 8 bps from the prior reading. That modest decline provides a slight tailwind on 504 debenture pricing entering Q3. Owner-occupied commercial real estate and long-life equipment buyers benefit from SBA 504's fixed-rate structure regardless of what the Fed does with short-term rates.
Three things are materially different entering Q3 2026 vs. entering Q2:
1. The dot plot flipped from cuts to hikes. The June Summary of Economic Projections showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one rate hike before December — up from a cut-consensus in March. The median year-end rate forecast moved from 3.4% (cut territory) to 3.8% (above today's 3.75% ceiling). For the full breakdown, see the June FOMC analysis.
2. Inflation revised up materially. The FOMC's median PCE projection rose to 3.7% for 2026, up from 2.7% in March — well above the Fed's 2% target. That's the direct driver of the dot plot shift. Higher-for-longer is back as the central scenario.
3. Fixed-rate windows now carry a quantifiable advantage. In Q2, fixed vs. variable was largely a preference question. In Q3, with a hike in the probability distribution, fixed-rate structures (SBA 7(a) fixed, equipment fixed-term, bank fixed-rate term loans) are worth prioritizing for borrowers with 3+ year financing horizons. The rate gap between a pre-hike fixed and post-hike variable is 25–50 bps on a single hike, compounding meaningfully on a 5–10 year term.
What didn't change: product rate ranges. Prime held, non-bank capital supply held, and the competitive compression in alternative term loans from Q2 has sustained into Q3.
These ranges are illustrative across our lender partner network — your actual offer depends on your specific file. Credit, operating history, deposit volume, and existing debt schedule all drive where you land within any range.
The fastest way to see which products typically fit your profile, without a hard credit pull, is the funding calculator. For a real offer, start an application — we'll route to the lender partner best positioned for your file and use case. Subject to lender partner approval.
We'll publish another rate snapshot at the start of Q4.
No. The FOMC held the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, by a 12-0 unanimous vote — the fourth consecutive pause. Prime Rate remains at 6.75%, unchanged. What changed is the committee's forward signal: the June dot plot shows 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike before December, and the median year-end rate projection moved from 3.4% to 3.8%.
SBA 7(a) variable rates are capped at Prime + 2.25% to + 4.75% depending on loan size and term. With Prime at 6.75%, current SBA 7(a) pricing ranges roughly 9.00–11.50%. If the committee follows through on the June dot plot — median year-end projection of 3.8% vs. the current 3.75% ceiling — a 25-bps hike would push Prime to 7.00% and SBA variable rates proportionally higher. SBA 7(a) fixed-rate options, available through certain PLP lenders, can lock today's rate for the life of the loan.
No. Working capital and revenue-based financing products are priced on risk appetite and capital availability in the non-bank market, not on the Prime Rate. Factor rate ranges held at 1.18–1.55 entering Q3, unchanged from Q2. What a rate hike can affect indirectly is the business volumes feeding MCA underwriting — higher consumer borrowing costs can compress the deposit base that revenue-based financing is underwritten against.
For facilities with 3+ year horizons, fixed-rate structures (SBA 7(a) fixed, equipment fixed-term, bank fixed-rate term loans) now carry a quantifiable advantage over variable-rate alternatives given the hike probability in the June dot plot. For shorter-duration working capital needs, the rate type matters less since the product turns over before a hike would significantly compound. The right answer depends on your specific use case, timeline, and credit profile.